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Ice Lab

Mon, Nov 30, 2009·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Florida Panthers 3, Atlanta Thrashers 4

Away

Florida Panthers

3

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 59% of the time.

ATL winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
FLA21215011328
ATL29114112435

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:36ATLMark PopovicAssists: Eric Boulton · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P1 4:21FLAStephen WeissAssists: Michael Frolik, Nathan Horton · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–1
  3. P1 8:54ATLIlya KovalchukAssists: Nik Antropov · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–2
  4. P1 15:47FLARostislav OleszPPAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Steve Reinprecht · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
  5. P2 5:28ATLChris ThorburnAssists: Eric Boulton, Marty Reasoner · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
  6. P2 17:37FLAMichael FrolikAssists: Stephen Weiss · Snap, 0.17 xG3–3
  7. P3 19:54ATLMaxim AfinogenovGWGAssists: Nik Antropov · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 14:11ATLEric Boulton: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  2. P1 19:30ATLChristoph Schubert: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 13:32ATLChristoph Schubert: Kneeing2 min
  4. P3 14:00FLAKamil Kreps: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Peverley won the faceoff against Moore
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLAATL
28Shots on goal35
2.4Expected goals3.0
43Shot attempts62
20Faceoffs won28
3Power plays1
2Penalty minutes6
10Hits18
19Blocked shots9
4Giveaways15
17Takeaways23

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 3.0 xGFLA 2.4 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 71/100 · #324 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.85 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +47 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 59% of the time.

ATL winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).