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Ice Lab

Mon, Nov 30, 2009·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

Colorado Avalanche 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 0

Away

Colorado Avalanche

3

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 80% of the time.

TBL winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
COL1911317329
TBL0908016033

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:16COLMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
  2. P2 13:38COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Chris Stewart, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.44 xG2–0
  3. P3 19:46COLWojtek WolskiENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–0
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 1:03TBLJeff Halpern: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 2:57COLKyle Quincey: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 5:24COLDarcy Tucker: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P1 9:05COLWojtek Wolski: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  5. P1 17:54TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 17:54COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 0:14TBLSteven Stamkos: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  8. P2 2:26TBLRyan Malone: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 3:25COLPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
  10. P2 6:11TBLMattias Ohlund: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 8:39COLMatt Hendricks: Slashing2 min
  12. P2 12:44TBLSteve Downie: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  13. P2 18:12TBLZenon Konopka: Misconduct10 min
  14. P3 5:03COLTJ Galiardi: Boarding2 min
  15. P3 10:31COLRyan O'Reilly: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
43% to win57% to win
← COL attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Stamkos
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLTBL
29Shots on goal33
4.5Expected goals2.5
44Shot attempts67
25Faceoffs won31
5Power plays7
19Penalty minutes25
20Hits14
16Blocked shots6
4Giveaways9
5Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 2.5 xGCOL 4.5 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 11/100 · #1091 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.85 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 80% of the time.

TBL winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).