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Ice Lab

Mon, Nov 30, 2009·Sommet Center, Nashville

Calgary Flames 5, Nashville Predators 0

Away

Calgary Flames

5

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 87% of the time.

NSH winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY01227311530
NSH0601105022

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 1:32CGYDavid MossGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–0
  2. P2 4:39CGYNigel DawesPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–0
  3. P3 8:09CGYAdam PardyAssists: Olli Jokinen, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
  4. P3 16:01CGYCurtis GlencrossENAssists: Robyn Regehr · Wrist, 0.37 xG4–0
  5. P3 18:53CGYJarome IginlaPPAssists: Curtis Glencross, Dion Phaneuf · Backhand, 0.38 xG5–0
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 5:30NSHWade Belak: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 5:30CGYBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 3:44NSHRyan Suter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  4. P2 15:19CGYJamie Lundmark: Holding2 min
  5. P3 9:32CGYJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 15:33CGYNigel Dawes: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 17:09NSHJordin Tootoo: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Jokinen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYNSH
30Shots on goal22
4.2Expected goals1.7
53Shot attempts55
22Faceoffs won31
2Power plays3
11Penalty minutes9
14Hits18
14Blocked shots13
9Giveaways16
11Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 1.7 xGCGY 4.2 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 5/100 · #1166 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.60 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 87% of the time.

NSH winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).