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Ice Lab

Tue, Dec 1, 2009·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Ottawa Senators 2, San Jose Sharks 5

Away

Ottawa Senators

2

Final

Home

San Jose Sharks

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 65% of the time.

SJS winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT1918010227
SJS21521018533

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:06SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P1 8:01SJSJamie McGinnAssists: Scott Nichol · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
  3. P1 12:03OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Chris Phillips · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–2
  4. P2 11:06SJSPatrick MarleauGWGAssists: Dany Heatley, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
  5. P2 13:25SJSRyane CloweAssists: Manny Malhotra · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
  6. P2 15:54OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.10 xG2–4
  7. P3 19:44SJSManny MalhotraENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.67 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 8:26SJSFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 8:26OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 14:24OTTNick Foligno: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P1 19:53OTTNick Foligno: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  5. P2 9:02OTTMatt Carkner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  6. P2 15:22SJSDan Boyle: Tripping2 min · PPG
  7. P3 5:01SJSScott Nichol: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 13:30SJSDouglas Murray: Interference2 min
  9. P3 16:16SJSDouglas Murray: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Spezza
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTSJS
27Shots on goal33
3.0Expected goals3.9
54Shot attempts66
22Faceoffs won39
4Power plays3
11Penalty minutes13
18Hits21
18Blocked shots17
13Giveaways21
8Takeaways15

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 3.9 xGOTT 3.0 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 51/100 · #586 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.93 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 65% of the time.

SJS winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).