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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 2, 2009·TD Garden, Boston

Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Boston Bruins 4

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

1

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.

BOS winsTBL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TBL016011113140
BOS21329017439

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:05BOSMarc SavardPPAssists: Derek Morris, Zdeno Chara · Wrap-around, 0.15 xG0–1
  2. P1 14:03BOSPatrice BergeronGWGAssists: Zdeno Chara, Mark Recchi · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–2
  3. P2 13:36BOSMarco SturmAssists: Mark Recchi, Patrice Bergeron · Backhand, 0.25 xG0–3
  4. P2 16:09BOSMarco SturmAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Mark Recchi · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–4
  5. P3 1:27TBLJeff HalpernAssists: Steve Downie, Ryan Malone · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 5:14BOSShawn Thornton: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 7:24TBLVincent Lecavalier: Tripping2 min · PPG
  3. P1 18:32BOSMark Recchi: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 3:43TBLMatt Walker: Holding2 min
  5. P2 10:04BOSVladimir Sobotka: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  6. P2 18:50BOSSteve Begin: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 11:25TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 16:20BOSShawn Thornton: Too many men on the ice2 min
  9. P3 19:31BOSSteve Begin: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TBL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← TBL attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Lecavalier
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TBLBOS
40Shots on goal39
3.0Expected goals3.9
55Shot attempts55
24Faceoffs won34
6Power plays3
6Penalty minutes12
26Hits24
7Blocked shots9
4Giveaways4
0Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 3.9 xGTBL 3.0 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSTBL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 13/100 · #1056 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.55 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
TBL 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.

BOS winsTBL wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).