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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 2, 2009·Prudential Center, Newark

Vancouver Canucks 5, New Jersey Devils 2

Away

Vancouver Canucks

5

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 77% of the time.

NJD winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN3901027526
NJD27010012229

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:33VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–0
  2. P1 10:03VANSami SaloAssists: Alexander Edler, Henrik Sedin · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
  3. P1 12:32VANDaniel SedinGWGAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Alexander Edler · Slap, 0.04 xG3–0
  4. P1 16:05NJDNiclas BergforsAssists: Andy Greene, Colin White · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
  5. P1 19:54NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
  6. P3 1:36VANAlexander EdlerAssists: Ryan Kesler, Mikael Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
  7. P3 5:18VANJannik HansenAssists: Kevin Bieksa · Tip-in, 0.06 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 14:25VANRyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 14:25NJDJamie Langenbrunner: Roughing2 min
  3. P2 16:36VANTanner Glass: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 16:36NJDVladimir Zharkov: Slashing2 min
  5. P3 2:39NJDMark Fraser: Cross checking2 min
  6. P3 7:23VANRyan Kesler: Holding2 min
  7. P3 8:17VANKevin Bieksa: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Sedin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANNJD
26Shots on goal29
1.3Expected goals2.7
39Shot attempts45
26Faceoffs won22
1Power plays2
8Penalty minutes6
22Hits18
9Blocked shots6
6Giveaways12
8Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 2.7 xGVAN 1.3 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 69/100 · #359 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.08 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 77% of the time.

NJD winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).