Wed, Dec 2, 2009·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Colorado Avalanche 5, Florida Panthers 6 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 07 | 27 | 317 | 03 | 0 | 534 |
| FLA | 219 | 214 | 18 | 03 | 1 | 644 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:05FLAStephen WeissPPAssists: Steve Reinprecht, Bryan McCabe · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 18:46FLAStephen WeissAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Bryan McCabe · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–2
- P2 5:52COLChris StewartAssists: Matt Duchene, Ryan Wilson · Tip-in, 0.27 xG1–2
- P2 8:16FLAStephen WeissAssists: Nathan Horton, Steve Reinprecht · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 11:19COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Chris Stewart, Paul Stastny · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–3
- P2 16:21FLANathan HortonPPAssists: Steve Reinprecht, Keith Ballard · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 4:49COLPaul StastnyAssists: Chris Stewart, Scott Hannan · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 7:41FLADominic MoorePPAssists: Rostislav Olesz, Dmitry Kulikov · Tip-in, 0.46 xG3–5
- P3 19:07COLMatt DucheneAssists: Paul Stastny, Kyle Quincey · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–5
- P3 19:44COLTJ GaliardiAssists: Paul Stastny, Kyle Quincey · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. FLA Michael Frolik stopped
- 2. COL Marek Svatos stopped
- 3. FLA Steve Reinprecht stopped
- 4. COL Matt Duchene stopped
- 5. FLA Rostislav Olesz stopped
- 6. FLA Nathan Horton stopped
- 7. COL Paul Stastny stopped
- 8. FLA Stephen Weiss scored
- 9. COL TJ Galiardi stopped
Penalties (19)
- P1 15:51COLMarek Svatos: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:39COLAdam Foote: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 18:39FLAMike Duco: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:57COLChris Stewart: Boarding2 min
- P2 2:59COLPaul Stastny: Holding2 min
- P2 10:12FLADennis Seidenberg: Charging2 min · PPG
- P2 10:49FLAKeith Ballard: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:46COLTJ Galiardi: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:44FLADmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
- P3 1:11FLAGregory Campbell: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:30COLBrett Clark: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:13COLChris Stewart: Instigator2 min
- P3 8:13COLChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:13COLChris Stewart: Misconduct10 min
- P3 8:13FLABryan Allen: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:15FLAMichael Frolik: High sticking double minor4 min
- OT 4:18FLAKeith Ballard: Interference with official2 min
- OT 4:18COLAdam Foote: Roughing2 min
- OT 4:18COLAdam Foote: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).