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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 3, 2009·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

Montréal Canadiens 2, Buffalo Sabres 6

Away

Montréal Canadiens

2

Final

Home

Buffalo Sabres

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 76% of the time.

BUF winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MTL0315115223
BUF31511428637

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:28BUFClarke MacArthurAssists: Drew Stafford, Henrik Tallinder · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–1
  2. P1 6:16BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Derek Roy, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.36 xG0–2
  3. P1 8:20BUFDerek RoyGWGAssists: Jason Pominville, Jochen Hecht · Snap, 0.17 xG0–3
  4. P2 4:31BUFTim KennedyAssists: Thomas Vanek, Mike Grier · Backhand, 0.30 xG0–4
  5. P2 16:50MTLScott GomezAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
  6. P3 11:27MTLJosh GorgesAssists: Maxim Lapierre, Matt D'Agostini · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–4
  7. P3 13:12BUFAndrej SekeraAssists: Thomas Vanek · Slap, 0.03 xG2–5
  8. P3 19:35BUFMike GrierAssists: Thomas Vanek, Andrej Sekera · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–6
Penalties (5)
  1. P2 13:26MTLRyan O'Byrne: Holding2 min
  2. P3 2:19MTLTom Pyatt: Tripping2 min
  3. P3 8:50BUFJochen Hecht: Holding2 min
  4. P3 17:02MTLPaul Mara: Fighting5 min
  5. P3 17:02BUFPatrick Kaleta: Fighting5 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kennedy won the faceoff against Plekanec
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLBUF
23Shots on goal37
1.5Expected goals2.9
52Shot attempts52
31Faceoffs won23
1Power plays2
9Penalty minutes7
19Hits16
10Blocked shots14
8Giveaways8
2Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 2.9 xGMTL 1.5 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 62/100 · #466 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.56 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 76% of the time.

BUF winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).