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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 3, 2009·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

Vancouver Canucks 3, Philadelphia Flyers 0

Away

Vancouver Canucks

3

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.

PHI winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN0921317329
PHI09014015038

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 13:38VANWillie MitchellGWGAssists: Rick Rypien, Tanner Glass · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
  2. P2 17:28VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–0
  3. P3 16:41VANChristian EhrhoffAssists: Henrik Sedin · Slap, 0.04 xG3–0
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 11:41VANAlexandre Burrows: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  2. P1 18:14VANHenrik Sedin: Holding2 min
  3. P1 0:00VANRyan Kesler: Cross checking2 min
  4. P2 3:29PHIKimmo Timonen: Interference2 min
  5. P2 3:58PHIChris Pronger: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 15:41PHIMike Richards: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 15:41VANKevin Bieksa: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 18:46PHIDaniel Brière: Spearing2 min
  9. P2 18:46PHIChris Pronger: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 18:46VANWillie Mitchell: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 18:46PHIDaniel Brière: Spearing2 min
  12. P2 18:46VANMikael Samuelsson: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 3:11VANMason Raymond: High sticking2 min
  14. P3 8:12VANAlexandre Burrows: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  15. P3 12:40PHIKimmo Timonen: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Carter
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANPHI
29Shots on goal38
2.8Expected goals3.8
54Shot attempts73
23Faceoffs won34
4Power plays5
22Penalty minutes20
17Hits17
16Blocked shots16
7Giveaways12
8Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 3.8 xGVAN 2.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHIVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 9/100 · #1114 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.74 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.

PHI winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).