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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 3, 2009·Philips Arena, Atlanta

New York Islanders 4, Atlanta Thrashers 1

Away

New York Islanders

4

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.

ATL winsNYI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYI0112916426
ATL1908010127

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:01ATLVyacheslav KozlovAssists: Bryan Little, Todd White · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
  2. P2 1:47NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Trent Hunter · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
  3. P2 15:46NYIMatt MoulsonPPGWGAssists: Trent Hunter, Kyle Okposo · Snap, 0.27 xG2–1
  4. P3 13:09NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Mark Streit, Kyle Okposo · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 2:37NYIJon Sim: Holding the stick2 min
  2. P1 12:58ATLRich Peverley: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 17:42ATLPavel Kubina: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 14:15ATLAnssi Salmela: Slashing2 min · PPG
  5. P3 7:52NYIRichard Park: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← NYI attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Peverley won the faceoff against Park
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYIATL
26Shots on goal27
3.7Expected goals3.3
54Shot attempts45
27Faceoffs won28
3Power plays2
4Penalty minutes6
12Hits13
12Blocked shots14
4Giveaways9
12Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 3.3 xGNYI 3.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLNYI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 21/100 · #966 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.07 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
NYI 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.

ATL winsNYI wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − NYI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).