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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 3, 2009·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 3

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

6

Final

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 53% of the time.

CBJ winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR2103718625
CBJ08117211336

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:32TORPhil KesselAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Jeff Finger · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
  2. P1 11:10TORLee StempniakUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
  3. P2 4:48CBJKristian HuseliusPPAssists: Rick Nash, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
  4. P2 6:05TORJason BlakeAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Niklas Hagman · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
  5. P2 10:55TORPhil KesselGWGAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–1
  6. P2 12:42TORNikolay KuleminSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG5–1
  7. P3 2:04TORJason BlakeAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Niklas Hagman · Wrist, 0.20 xG6–1
  8. P3 3:13CBJJason ChimeraAssists: Jan Hejda · Wrist, 0.15 xG6–2
  9. P3 17:20CBJJan HejdaPPAssists: Mike Commodore, Samuel Pahlsson · Slap, 0.04 xG6–3
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 11:47TORNiklas Hagman: Interference2 min
  2. P2 1:29CBJKristian Huselius: Slashing2 min
  3. P2 3:27TORMatt Stajan: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
  4. P2 11:19TORChristian Hanson: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 13:32CBJJared Boll: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 7:06CBJJared Boll: Holding2 min
  7. P3 12:59TORPhil Kessel: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 12:59TORPhil Kessel: Fighting5 min · PPG
  9. P3 12:59CBJKris Russell: Cross checking2 min
  10. P3 12:59CBJKris Russell: Fighting5 min
  11. P3 13:29TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 15:34TORLuke Schenn: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Primeau won the faceoff against Umberger
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORCBJ
25Shots on goal36
2.6Expected goals2.7
38Shot attempts56
26Faceoffs won31
3Power plays5
17Penalty minutes13
16Hits26
11Blocked shots5
4Giveaways4
5Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 2.7 xGTOR 2.6 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 68/100 · #370 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.94 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 53% of the time.

CBJ winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).