Thu, Dec 3, 2009·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh
Colorado Avalanche 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 16 | 09 | 01 | 116 |
| PIT | 114 | 05 | 314 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:02COLTJ GaliardiPPAssists: Darcy Tucker, Wojtek Wolski · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 19:53PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Mike Rupp, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 7:15PITBill GuerinPPGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 19:11PITJordan StaalENAssists: Max Talbot, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.71 xG1–3
- P3 19:29PITSidney CrosbyENAssists: Jordan Staal, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.70 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:17PITEric Godard: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:28COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:30COLMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:30PITCraig Adams: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:51PITSergei Gonchar: Interference2 min
- P2 7:50PITBrooks Orpik: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:36COLChris Durno: Holding2 min
- P3 5:14COLAdam Foote: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:40COLBrett Clark: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).