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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 3, 2009·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Edmonton Oilers 4, Detroit Red Wings 1

Away

Edmonton Oilers

4

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 66% of the time.

DET winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM21521109435
DET1110809128

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:50EDMLubomir VisnovskyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P1 17:09EDMRobert NilssonGWGAssists: Ryan Stone, Zack Stortini · Snap, 0.20 xG2–0
  3. P1 19:59DETDaniel ClearyAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Nicklas Lidstrom · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
  4. P2 8:50EDMPatrick O'SullivanAssists: Jean-Francois Jacques · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
  5. P2 11:47EDMPatrick O'SullivanAssists: Sheldon Souray · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 10:10EDMSheldon Souray: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 3:35DETBrad May: Roughing2 min
  3. P2 3:35EDMZack Stortini: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 3:35DETBrad May: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Horcoff
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMDET
35Shots on goal28
3.0Expected goals2.1
53Shot attempts58
18Faceoffs won28
1Power plays1
4Penalty minutes4
31Hits33
17Blocked shots8
7Giveaways12
5Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 2.1 xGEDM 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 28/100 · #904 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.93 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 66% of the time.

DET winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).