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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 3, 2009·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale

Calgary Flames 1, Phoenix Coyotes 2

Away

Calgary Flames

1

Final

Home

Phoenix Coyotes

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 83% of the time.

PHX winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY18010011129
PHX0151818231

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 19:59CGYDavid MossAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Daymond Langkow · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
  2. P2 9:40PHXPetr PruchaAssists: Radim Vrbata, Zbynek Michalek · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P3 16:31PHXTaylor PyattGWGAssists: Daniel Winnik, Vernon Fiddler · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 1:29PHXDavid Schlemko: Cross checking2 min
  2. P1 12:15CGYFredrik Sjostrom: Holding the stick2 min
  3. P2 6:49CGYMark Giordano: Closing hand on puck2 min
  4. P2 7:30CGYRobyn Regehr: Boarding2 min
  5. P2 18:01PHXPetr Prucha: Tripping2 min
  6. P3 5:59PHXAdrian Aucoin: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 11:06CGYDavid Moss: Boarding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHX
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackPHX attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Jokinen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYPHX
29Shots on goal31
1.9Expected goals4.0
45Shot attempts53
19Faceoffs won33
3Power plays4
8Penalty minutes6
31Hits25
10Blocked shots11
0Giveaways0
4Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHX 4.0 xGCGY 1.9 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHXCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 39/100 · #749 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.33 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 32% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50PHX 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +38 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 83% of the time.

PHX winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (PHX − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).