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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 3, 2009·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

St. Louis Blues 3, San Jose Sharks 2 (SO)

Away

St. Louis Blues

3

Final

Shootout

Home

San Jose Sharks

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 59% of the time.

SJS winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
STL11301115011330
SJS1171709011234

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:19SJSDany HeatleyAssists: Joe Thornton, Rob Blake · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 11:06STLJay McClementAssists: Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P2 5:54SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Douglas Murray, Ryane Clowe · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–2
  4. P3 19:53STLCarlo ColaiacovoSHAssists: Keith Tkachuk, David Perron · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. SJS Ryane Clowe stopped
  2. 2. STL Andy McDonald scored
  3. 3. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
  4. 4. STL Brad Boyes stopped
  5. 5. SJS Patrick Marleau scored
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 3:18SJSRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 3:18STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 3:40SJSDouglas Murray: Holding2 min
  4. P1 15:48STLKeith Tkachuk: Interference2 min
  5. P2 6:48STLMike Weaver: Interference2 min
  6. P2 11:04STLKeith Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
  7. P2 19:51SJSManny Malhotra: Holding2 min
  8. P3 7:13STLDavid Backes: Holding2 min
  9. P3 7:13SJSFrazer McLaren: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 7:13SJSFrazer McLaren: Game misconduct10 min
  11. P3 8:07STLPaul Kariya: Holding2 min
  12. P3 10:52SJSKent Huskins: Tripping2 min
  13. P3 18:09STLBrad Boyes: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← STL attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Malhotra
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLSJS
30Shots on goal34
2.8Expected goals3.3
67Shot attempts63
29Faceoffs won31
3Power plays5
17Penalty minutes23
28Hits23
14Blocked shots19
6Giveaways11
8Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 3.3 xGSTL 2.8 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSSTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 73/100 · #306 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.98 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 3% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +45 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 59% of the time.

SJS winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).