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Ice Lab

Fri, Dec 4, 2009·Prudential Center, Newark

Tampa Bay Lightning 2, New Jersey Devils 3

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

2

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 63% of the time.

NJD winsTBL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TBL071918224
NJD050638319

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 1:26TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Jeff Halpern · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG1–0
  2. P3 1:15NJDBrian RolstonPPAssists: Rob Niedermayer · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P3 5:14NJDNiclas BergforsPPAssists: Vladimir Zharkov · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
  4. P3 17:00TBLSteve DowniePPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Ryan Malone · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
  5. P3 19:21NJDJamie LangenbrunnerGWGAssists: Andy Greene, Brian Rolston · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 2:18TBLStephane Veilleux: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 14:02NJDMatthew Corrente: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 14:02TBLJames Wright: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 18:28NJDJamie Langenbrunner: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 2:48TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 2:48NJDMatthew Corrente: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 6:03NJDZach Parise: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 12:20TBLRyan Malone: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 12:20NJDMark Fraser: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 12:20NJDPatrik Elias: Cross checking2 min
  11. P3 1:12TBLLukas Krajicek: Slashing2 min · PPG
  12. P3 1:35TBLJeff Halpern: Tripping2 min
  13. P3 3:50TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min · PPG
  14. P3 16:45NJDMark Fraser: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TBL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← TBL attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Niedermayer won the faceoff against Szczechura
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TBLNJD
24Shots on goal19
1.4Expected goals2.1
41Shot attempts41
27Faceoffs won29
4Power plays4
23Penalty minutes23
24Hits26
9Blocked shots8
9Giveaways7
5Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 2.1 xGTBL 1.4 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDTBL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 78/100 · #235 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.10 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
TBL 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +46 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 63% of the time.

NJD winsTBL wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − TBL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).