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Ice Lab

Fri, Dec 4, 2009·Centre Bell, Montreal

Boston Bruins 1, Montréal Canadiens 5

Away

Boston Bruins

1

Final

Home

Montréal Canadiens

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.

MTL winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BOS08018112138
MTL11041306529

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:30MTLJaroslav SpacekAssists: Scott Gomez, Glen Metropolit · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P2 8:10MTLMichael CammalleriGWGAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Andrei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
  3. P2 13:33MTLMichael CammalleriUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–3
  4. P2 16:07MTLGlen MetropolitAssists: Hal Gill, Max Pacioretty · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–4
  5. P2 17:29MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: Scott Gomez, Matt D'Agostini · Slap, 0.06 xG0–5
  6. P3 4:45BOSVladimir SobotkaAssists: Matt Hunwick · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–5
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 6:26BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 15:10MTLRyan O'Byrne: Interference2 min
  3. P1 17:17BOSBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 5:34MTLMaxim Lapierre: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 5:34MTLJaroslav Spacek: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 6:03MTLMaxim Lapierre: High sticking double minor4 min
  7. P3 8:37MTLMatt D'Agostini: Slashing2 min
  8. P3 9:40BOSDavid Krejci: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 9:40MTLTomas Plekanec: High sticking2 min
  10. P3 9:40MTLTomas Plekanec: High sticking2 min
  11. P3 9:52BOSMarco Sturm: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackMTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Begin won the faceoff against Lapierre
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSMTL
38Shots on goal29
3.1Expected goals2.2
79Shot attempts46
24Faceoffs won25
7Power plays3
8Penalty minutes16
22Hits21
10Blocked shots22
10Giveaways27
2Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 2.2 xGBOS 3.1 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 13/100 · #1054 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.56 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.

MTL winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).