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Ice Lab

Fri, Dec 4, 2009·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Anaheim Ducks 4, Minnesota Wild 5 (SO)

Away

Anaheim Ducks

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Minnesota Wild

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.

MIN winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
ANA141528051422
MIN0121837022529

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:21ANAJoffrey LupulAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P2 10:46ANABobby RyanPPAssists: Ryan Whitney, Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.18 xG2–0
  3. P2 15:08MINMikko KoivuAssists: Andrew Brunette, Marek Zidlicky · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–1
  4. P3 1:17MINAntti MiettinenAssists: Andrew Brunette, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
  5. P3 3:00ANAJoffrey LupulAssists: Ryan Whitney, Ryan Getzlaf · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
  6. P3 9:55ANABobby RyanUnassisted · Backhand, 0.05 xG4–2
  7. P3 15:05MINMikko KoivuAssists: Antti Miettinen · Snap, 0.00 xG4–3
  8. P3 18:19MINAntti MiettinenPPAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Andrew Brunette · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
  2. 2. ANA Corey Perry stopped
  3. 3. MIN Antti Miettinen scored
  4. 4. ANA Ryan Getzlaf stopped
  5. 5. MIN Andrew Ebbett stopped
  6. 6. ANA Joffrey Lupul scored
  7. 7. MIN Guillaume Latendresse scored
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 11:02ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 11:02MINDerek Boogaard: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 9:39MINAndrew Brunette: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  4. P2 12:05MINDerek Boogaard: Interference2 min
  5. P2 13:02ANACorey Perry: Interference2 min
  6. P3 17:48ANAJoffrey Lupul: High sticking2 min · PPG
  7. OT 0:56MINMarek Zidlicky: Hooking2 min
  8. OT 4:41ANAJames Wisniewski: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Getzlaf
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANAMIN
22Shots on goal29
1.3Expected goals2.1
40Shot attempts61
26Faceoffs won38
3Power plays3
11Penalty minutes11
24Hits20
17Blocked shots12
5Giveaways6
3Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 2.1 xGANA 1.3 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 95/100 · #42 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.51 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 2% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +40 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.

MIN winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).