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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 5, 2009·RBC Center, Raleigh

Vancouver Canucks 3, Carolina Hurricanes 5

Away

Vancouver Canucks

3

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.

CAR winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN11406216336
CAR1731318528

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:02VANJannik HansenAssists: Henrik Sedin · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P1 12:22CARRay WhitneyAssists: Eric Staal, Aaron Ward · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P2 3:55CARErik ColeAssists: Ray Whitney, Tim Gleason · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
  4. P2 6:06CARSergei SamsonovAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
  5. P2 18:59CARErik ColePPGWGAssists: Ray Whitney, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–4
  6. P3 10:07VANSteve BernierAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Kyle Wellwood · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–4
  7. P3 14:45VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Deflected, 0.18 xG3–4
  8. P3 19:46CARErik ColeENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 6:38CARAaron Ward: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 17:25CARTuomo Ruutu: Interference2 min
  3. P2 10:22VANAlexander Edler: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 18:22VANRyan Johnson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  5. P3 17:03CARSergei Samsonov: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Cullen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANCAR
36Shots on goal28
3.8Expected goals3.4
73Shot attempts51
31Faceoffs won26
3Power plays2
4Penalty minutes6
20Hits41
12Blocked shots20
5Giveaways6
6Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 3.4 xGVAN 3.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 76/100 · #260 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.21 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 39% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.

CAR winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).