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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 5, 2009·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Edmonton Oilers 3, Dallas Stars 2 (SO)

Away

Edmonton Oilers

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Dallas Stars

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.

DAL winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
EDM010111112032336
DAL2180907011235

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 15:51DALJamie BennAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Brenden Morrow · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–1
  2. P1 19:29DALJames NealAssists: Brad Richards, Nicklas Grossmann · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
  3. P2 2:15EDMLubomir VisnovskyAssists: Robert Nilsson, Ladislav Smid · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
  4. P3 16:53EDMLadislav SmidAssists: Ethan Moreau, Ryan Potulny · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. DAL Brad Richards stopped
  2. 2. EDM Patrick O'Sullivan scored
  3. 3. DAL James Neal stopped
  4. 4. EDM Sam Gagner stopped
  5. 5. DAL Loui Eriksson scored
  6. 6. EDM Robert Nilsson stopped
  7. 7. DAL Mike Ribeiro stopped
  8. 8. EDM Dustin Penner stopped
  9. 9. DAL Brenden Morrow stopped
  10. 10. EDM Shawn Horcoff scored
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 5:42EDMRyan Potulny: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 17:11DALFabian Brunnstrom: High sticking2 min
  3. P2 4:51DALMatt Niskanen: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 15:29EDMSam Gagner: Too many men on the ice2 min
  5. P3 3:02DALStephane Robidas: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Ribeiro
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMDAL
36Shots on goal35
2.9Expected goals3.2
72Shot attempts69
27Faceoffs won35
3Power plays2
4Penalty minutes6
37Hits34
16Blocked shots20
14Giveaways16
6Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 3.2 xGEDM 2.9 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 70/100 · #350 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.67 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 11% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +38 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.

DAL winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).