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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 5, 2009·TD Garden, Boston

Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Boston Bruins 7

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.

BOS winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR08015210233
BOS212211310733

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:28BOSMarco SturmAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Derek Morris · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P1 6:01BOSMarc SavardAssists: Byron Bitz, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.42 xG0–2
  3. P2 2:09BOSZdeno CharaGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.25 xG0–3
  4. P2 14:45BOSMarc SavardPPAssists: Michael Ryder, Marco Sturm · Snap, 0.10 xG0–4
  5. P3 6:36BOSMark RecchiPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Tuukka Rask · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–5
  6. P3 12:26BOSJohnny BoychukAssists: David Krejci · Slap, 0.02 xG0–6
  7. P3 12:45BOSMarc SavardAssists: Blake Wheeler, Byron Bitz · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–7
  8. P3 15:46TORNiklas HagmanAssists: Matt Stajan, Francois Beauchemin · Snap, 0.07 xG1–7
  9. P3 17:58TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Luke Schenn, Jason Blake · Snap, 0.00 xG2–7
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 5:29BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 5:29TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 9:40BOSMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 9:40TORJamal Mayers: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 18:11BOSMarco Sturm: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 2:31BOSAndrew Ference: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 5:22TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 5:22TORColton Orr: Interference2 min
  9. P2 13:33TORIan White: Hooking2 min · PPG
  10. P3 5:06TORMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min · PPG
  11. P3 12:47BOSSteve Begin: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 12:47TORJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 17:01TORLee Stempniak: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 17:01TORLee Stempniak: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 17:01TORWayne Primeau: Misconduct10 min
  16. P3 17:01BOSAndrew Ference: Roughing2 min
  17. P3 17:01BOSAndrew Ference: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Stajan
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORBOS
33Shots on goal33
3.1Expected goals2.6
57Shot attempts57
27Faceoffs won35
2Power plays4
34Penalty minutes20
28Hits19
20Blocked shots13
3Giveaways5
9Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 2.6 xGTOR 3.1 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 60/100 · #505 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.47 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.

BOS winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).