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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 5, 2009·Prudential Center, Newark

Detroit Red Wings 3, New Jersey Devils 4 (SO)

Away

Detroit Red Wings

3

Final

Shootout

Home

New Jersey Devils

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.

NJD winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
DET07211111021331
NJD2111903032426

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 15:29NJDJamie LangenbrunnerAssists: Zach Parise, Travis Zajac · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P1 17:25NJDJohnny OduyaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
  3. P2 9:23DETKris DraperAssists: Darren Helm, Patrick Eaves · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
  4. P2 14:43NJDRob NiedermayerAssists: Vladimir Zharkov, Jay Pandolfo · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–3
  5. P2 19:30DETTomas HolmstromPPAssists: Brad Stuart, Henrik Zetterberg · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–3
  6. P3 9:30DETPatrick EavesAssists: Justin Abdelkader · Tip-in, 0.01 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. DET Pavel Datsyuk scored
  2. 2. NJD Zach Parise scored
  3. 3. DET Henrik Zetterberg stopped
  4. 4. NJD Jamie Langenbrunner stopped
  5. 5. DET Todd Bertuzzi stopped
  6. 6. NJD Travis Zajac stopped
  7. 7. DET Ville Leino stopped
  8. 8. NJD Patrik Elias scored
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 6:09DETBrett Lebda: Interference2 min
  2. P2 3:25NJDIlkka Pikkarainen: Holding2 min
  3. P2 3:31DETTomas Holmstrom: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  4. P2 18:52NJDPatrik Elias: Holding2 min · PPG
  5. P3 9:58NJDBryce Salvador: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← DET attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Zajac
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETNJD
31Shots on goal26
1.9Expected goals2.2
48Shot attempts47
30Faceoffs won22
3Power plays2
4Penalty minutes6
33Hits17
7Blocked shots9
5Giveaways8
9Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 2.2 xGDET 1.9 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 73/100 · #293 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.78 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 47% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.

NJD winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).