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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 5, 2009·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

Washington Capitals 8, Philadelphia Flyers 2

Away

Washington Capitals

8

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.

PHI winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
WSH31441115830
PHI11308115236

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:57WSHTomas FleischmannAssists: Brendan Morrison, Eric Fehr · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
  2. P1 12:06PHIMika PyoralaAssists: Oskars Bartulis, Daniel Carcillo · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–1
  3. P1 16:40WSHTomas FleischmannPPAssists: Eric Fehr, Tom Poti · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
  4. P1 17:00WSHMike GreenPPGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
  5. P2 0:36WSHBrooks LaichPPAssists: Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–1
  6. P2 11:14WSHChris ClarkAssists: Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–1
  7. P2 12:02WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Milan Jurcina, Tom Poti · Wrist, 0.45 xG6–1
  8. P2 15:23WSHMike GreenAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.08 xG7–1
  9. P3 6:09PHIScott HartnellAssists: Jon Kalinski, Andreas Nodl · Snap, 0.05 xG7–2
  10. P3 10:57WSHDavid SteckelPPAssists: Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.15 xG8–2
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 14:33PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min · PPG
  2. P1 14:33PHIDaniel Carcillo: Instigator2 min
  3. P1 14:33PHIDaniel Carcillo: Cross checking2 min
  4. P1 14:33PHIDaniel Carcillo: Misconduct10 min
  5. P1 14:33PHIDaniel Carcillo: Game misconduct10 min
  6. P2 3:07WSHTyler Sloan: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 3:07PHIScott Hartnell: Interference2 min
  8. P2 9:09WSHKarl Alzner: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 10:41PHIScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← WSH attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Richards
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHPHI
30Shots on goal36
2.7Expected goals2.1
58Shot attempts65
25Faceoffs won24
6Power plays1
4Penalty minutes33
18Hits19
19Blocked shots16
8Giveaways11
9Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 2.1 xGWSH 2.7 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHIWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 42/100 · #709 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.94 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.

PHI winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).