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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 5, 2009·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

Atlanta Thrashers 2, Florida Panthers 1 (SO)

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Florida Panthers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.

FLA winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
ATL010015112002237
FLA0120717051131

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P3 2:36FLAStephen WeissPPAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Nathan Horton · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P3 18:56ATLIlya KovalchukAssists: Maxim Afinogenov, Toby Enstrom · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. FLA Stephen Weiss stopped
  2. 2. ATL Ilya Kovalchuk scored
  3. 3. FLA Nathan Horton stopped
  4. 4. ATL Vyacheslav Kozlov stopped
  5. 5. FLA Steve Reinprecht scored
  6. 6. ATL Maxim Afinogenov stopped
  7. 7. FLA Rostislav Olesz stopped
  8. 8. ATL Rich Peverley scored
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 7:04ATLVyacheslav Kozlov: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 11:44ATLChristoph Schubert: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 17:43ATLColby Armstrong: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 2:39FLABryan Allen: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 2:39FLAMichael Frolik: Boarding5 min
  6. P2 2:39FLAMichael Frolik: Game misconduct10 min
  7. P2 2:39FLABryan McCabe: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 2:39ATLEric Boulton: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  9. P2 2:39ATLChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 7:45FLAMike Duco: Kneeing2 min
  11. P2 7:45FLAKeith Ballard: Slashing2 min
  12. P2 7:45ATLMaxim Afinogenov: Slashing2 min
  13. P2 9:37FLABryan McCabe: Elbowing2 min
  14. P3 1:10ATLRich Peverley: Hooking2 min · PPG
  15. P3 16:46FLAKamil Kreps: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Antropov won the faceoff against Weiss
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLFLA
37Shots on goal31
2.3Expected goals2.7
71Shot attempts53
31Faceoffs won31
4Power plays4
17Penalty minutes30
17Hits23
11Blocked shots19
11Giveaways6
2Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 2.7 xGATL 2.3 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLAATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 57/100 · #535 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.72 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 6% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +43 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.

FLA winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).