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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 5, 2009·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Chicago Blackhawks 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 1 (OT)

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

2

Final

Overtime

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.

PIT winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
CHI1110601113231
PIT090171601133

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:37CHIMarian HossaAssists: Brian Campbell, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P3 18:28PITJordan StaalAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
  3. OT 2:38CHIKris VersteegGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 3:49PITMatt Cooke: Interference2 min
  2. P1 6:22PITBrooks Orpik: Holding2 min
  3. P1 6:45CHIDuncan Keith: Interference2 min
  4. P1 12:08CHIBen Eager: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 12:08PITMike Rupp: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 12:08PITMike Rupp: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 17:15CHIColin Fraser: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 17:15PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Madden won the faceoff against Malkin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHIPIT
31Shots on goal33
2.5Expected goals2.5
71Shot attempts69
44Faceoffs won30
3Power plays1
6Penalty minutes10
31Hits44
21Blocked shots20
2Giveaways5
3Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 2.5 xGCHI 2.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 46/100 · #647 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.49 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +43 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.

PIT winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).