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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 5, 2009·Sommet Center, Nashville

Minnesota Wild 5, Nashville Predators 3

Away

Minnesota Wild

5

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 84% of the time.

NSH winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN210218111539
NSH1709213329

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:27NSHMartin EratPPAssists: Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P1 18:16MINAndrew EbbettAssists: Martin Havlat, Derek Boogaard · Tip-in, 0.24 xG1–1
  3. P1 19:48MINJames SheppardAssists: Nick Schultz, Owen Nolan · Tip-in, 0.20 xG2–1
  4. P2 11:21MINAndrew BrunettePPAssists: Martin Havlat · Slap, 0.72 xG3–1
  5. P2 17:37MINAntti MiettinenGWGAssists: Andrew Brunette, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–1
  6. P3 3:27MINEric BelangerPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.09 xG5–1
  7. P3 9:05NSHJason ArnottUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–2
  8. P3 19:48NSHMarcel GocAssists: Wade Belak · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 6:04MINGreg Zanon: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 8:02MINNick Schultz: Kneeing2 min · PPG
  3. P1 12:55MINJaime Sifers: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 15:40MINShane Hnidy: Interference2 min
  5. P2 10:35NSHCody Franson: Holding2 min · PPG
  6. P2 19:56NSHDavid Legwand: Holding the stick2 min
  7. P3 2:33NSHJason Arnott: Slashing2 min · PPG
  8. P3 6:11NSHJerred Smithson: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 19:56MINKim Johnsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Koivu
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINNSH
39Shots on goal29
3.8Expected goals1.7
61Shot attempts54
33Faceoffs won27
4Power plays5
10Penalty minutes8
8Hits22
16Blocked shots14
6Giveaways15
15Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 1.7 xGMIN 3.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 69/100 · #363 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.01 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 84% of the time.

NSH winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).