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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 5, 2009·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Calgary Flames 2, San Jose Sharks 1

Away

Calgary Flames

2

Final

Home

San Jose Sharks

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 58% of the time.

SJS winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY010112114236
SJS011114011136

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 4:40SJSRyane CloweAssists: Dan Boyle, Douglas Murray · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P2 10:28CGYOlli JokinenAssists: Jarome Iginla, Jay Bouwmeester · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P3 3:36CGYDaymond LangkowGWGAssists: Rene Bourque · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 0:08SJSScott Nichol: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 0:08CGYEric Nystrom: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 1:17SJSDouglas Murray: Charging2 min
  4. P1 4:19CGYBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 4:19SJSFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 6:52SJSKent Huskins: Holding2 min
  7. P1 18:27CGYDavid Moss: Too many men on the ice2 min
  8. P2 7:28CGYJay Bouwmeester: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  9. P2 14:24CGYEric Nystrom: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 17:14SJSJamie McGinn: Holding2 min
  11. P3 8:37SJSScott Nichol: Holding2 min
  12. P3 9:57SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Nichol won the faceoff against Conroy
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYSJS
36Shots on goal36
1.8Expected goals2.2
68Shot attempts62
25Faceoffs won36
5Power plays3
13Penalty minutes17
35Hits35
14Blocked shots18
8Giveaways11
7Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 2.2 xGCGY 1.8 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 35/100 · #805 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.22 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 25% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 58% of the time.

SJS winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).