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Ice Lab

Sun, Dec 6, 2009·Honda Center, Anaheim

Ottawa Senators 4, Anaheim Ducks 3 (SO)

Away

Ottawa Senators

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Anaheim Ducks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.

ANA winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
OTT2901116032429
ANA212011112011336

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:01OTTJarkko RuutuUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P1 12:16ANARyan GetzlafUnassisted · Snap, 0.01 xG1–1
  3. P1 15:17OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Alex Kovalev · Tip-in, 0.31 xG2–1
  4. P1 15:48ANAJoffrey LupulAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
  5. P3 1:04OTTFilip KubaAssists: Jason Spezza, Nick Foligno · Slap, 0.08 xG3–2
  6. P3 1:54ANACorey PerryAssists: Scott Niedermayer · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. ANA Corey Perry stopped
  2. 2. OTT Alex Kovalev scored
  3. 3. ANA Ryan Getzlaf scored
  4. 4. OTT Daniel Alfredsson scored
  5. 5. ANA Joffrey Lupul stopped
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 11:41ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min · PPG
  2. P1 11:41OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 13:07ANAJoffrey Lupul: Cross checking2 min
  4. P1 14:20ANATodd Marchant: Tripping2 min
  5. P1 19:53ANAScott Niedermayer: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 10:16OTTNick Foligno: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 11:44OTTMatt Carkner: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 12:50ANAJoffrey Lupul: Boarding2 min
  9. P2 13:54ANANick Boynton: Tripping2 min
  10. P2 17:37OTTAlex Kovalev: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Fisher
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTANA
29Shots on goal36
3.5Expected goals3.3
51Shot attempts56
30Faceoffs won27
5Power plays3
11Penalty minutes15
30Hits41
10Blocked shots11
9Giveaways11
5Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 3.3 xGOTT 3.5 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANAOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 73/100 · #304 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.97 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.

ANA winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).