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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 7, 2009·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

New Jersey Devils 3, Buffalo Sabres 0

Away

New Jersey Devils

3

Final

Home

Buffalo Sabres

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 85% of the time.

BUF winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD212114011337
BUF0507010022

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 17:51NJDBrian RolstonGWGAssists: Patrik Elias, Vladimir Zharkov · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–0
  2. P1 18:58NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Zach Parise, Colin White · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
  3. P2 0:39NJDNiclas BergforsPPAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–0
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 11:52BUFToni Lydman: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 14:06NJDZach Parise: Slashing2 min
  3. P2 0:14BUFClarke MacArthur: Holding2 min · PPG
  4. P2 11:57BUFPatrick Kaleta: Boarding2 min
  5. P2 12:19NJDBrian Rolston: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 14:08NJDColin White: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 14:08BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 18:17NJDNiclas Bergfors: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 2:24BUFAdam Mair: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 5:07NJDMark Fraser: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kennedy won the faceoff against Elias
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDBUF
37Shots on goal22
3.4Expected goals1.3
58Shot attempts51
22Faceoffs won16
4Power plays4
10Penalty minutes10
8Hits17
20Blocked shots12
7Giveaways11
2Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 1.3 xGNJD 3.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 6/100 · #1152 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.63 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 85% of the time.

BUF winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).