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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 7, 2009·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Atlanta Thrashers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 5

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

2

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.

TOR winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL090629224
TOR01051206528

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 2:49TORLee StempniakAssists: Wayne Primeau, Nikolay Kulemin · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
  2. P2 4:55TORMatt StajanAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.26 xG0–2
  3. P2 10:09TORMikhail GrabovskiGWGAssists: Niklas Hagman, Ian White · Snap, 0.27 xG0–3
  4. P2 18:24TORAlexei PonikarovskyAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Lee Stempniak · Snap, 0.10 xG0–4
  5. P2 18:52TORAlexei PonikarovskyAssists: Matt Stajan, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–5
  6. P3 6:48ATLBryan LittlePPAssists: Pavel Kubina, Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–5
  7. P3 7:23ATLMarty ReasonerAssists: Chris Thorburn, Eric Boulton · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 12:31ATLMaxim Afinogenov: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 12:48ATLMarty Reasoner: Delaying game2 min
  3. P2 7:58ATLEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
  4. P3 4:58TORMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min · PPG
  5. P3 11:27TORMike Komisarek: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 18:51ATLChristoph Schubert: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Antropov won the faceoff against Stajan
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLTOR
24Shots on goal28
2.4Expected goals3.8
47Shot attempts64
23Faceoffs won28
2Power plays4
8Penalty minutes4
26Hits33
16Blocked shots13
15Giveaways6
8Takeaways1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 3.8 xGATL 2.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 60/100 · #500 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.56 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.

TOR winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).