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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 7, 2009·Centre Bell, Montreal

Philadelphia Flyers 1, Montréal Canadiens 3

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

1

Final

Home

Montréal Canadiens

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.

MTL winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI140902115
MTL012616313

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:28PHIDaniel BrièreUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
  2. P2 6:20MTLAndrei KostitsynAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Roman Hamrlik · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
  3. P2 14:04MTLMichael CammalleriGWGAssists: Maxim Lapierre, Georges Laraque · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
  4. P3 11:05MTLMarc-Andre BergeronPPAssists: Roman Hamrlik, Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 2:45MTLGeorges Laraque: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:45PHIRiley Cote: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 10:18PHIDaniel Brière: High sticking2 min
  4. P1 17:16MTLRyan O'Byrne: Interference2 min
  5. P2 2:04MTLCarey Price: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  6. P3 5:56PHIChris Pronger: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 6:58MTLMax Pacioretty: Too many men on the ice2 min
  8. P3 10:40PHIMatt Carle: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
  9. P3 18:42MTLJosh Gorges: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackMTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Metropolit
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHIMTL
15Shots on goal13
0.9Expected goals1.3
48Shot attempts32
25Faceoffs won34
4Power plays3
11Penalty minutes13
20Hits21
11Blocked shots27
14Giveaways12
5Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 1.3 xGPHI 0.9 xG
00.51P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 20/100 · #970 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.06 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 34% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.

MTL winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).