Skip to content
Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 7, 2009·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Carolina Hurricanes 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

3

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.

PIT winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR2111406321
PIT01021507232

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:45CARAndrew AlbertsAssists: Ray Whitney, Eric Staal · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–0
  2. P1 11:36CARJussi JokinenPPAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Tim Gleason · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
  3. P2 2:26CARRay WhitneyGWGAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
  4. P2 6:00PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Bill Guerin, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
  5. P2 6:49PITMike RuppAssists: Craig Adams, Pascal Dupuis · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 10:32PITEvgeni Malkin: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P1 11:36PITJay McKee: Holding2 min
  3. P1 15:33CARTim Gleason: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 15:33PITBill Guerin: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 18:47CARTuomo Ruutu: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 14:53CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 16:31PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min
  8. P3 6:13CARMatt Cullen: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 8:37PITMark Eaton: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 15:00PITMartin Skoula: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARPIT
21Shots on goal32
2.2Expected goals2.4
37Shot attempts64
26Faceoffs won29
5Power plays3
11Penalty minutes15
27Hits30
17Blocked shots4
6Giveaways3
5Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 2.4 xGCAR 2.2 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 61/100 · #474 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.25 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.

PIT winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).