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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 7, 2009·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

Washington Capitals 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 0

Away

Washington Capitals

3

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.

TBL winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
WSH07316011334
TBL0701405026

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 7:39WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
  2. P2 12:32WSHEric FehrAssists: Tomas Fleischmann · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
  3. P2 19:35WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–0
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 1:40TBLRyan Malone: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  2. P1 4:29TBLSteve Downie: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 13:10TBLSteve Downie: Cross checking2 min
  4. P2 5:12WSHMike Green: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 8:02WSHAlexander Semin: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 9:55WSHJeff Schultz: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 9:55TBLSteve Downie: High sticking2 min
  8. P2 17:37TBLVincent Lecavalier: Tripping2 min · PPG
  9. P3 2:16WSHEric Fehr: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 9:58TBLVincent Lecavalier: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 18:23TBLMatt Walker: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 18:23WSHEric Fehr: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 18:23TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 18:23WSHJohn Erskine: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
43% to win57% to win
← WSH attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Perreault
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHTBL
34Shots on goal26
3.2Expected goals2.3
51Shot attempts51
28Faceoffs won32
5Power plays3
12Penalty minutes16
20Hits20
15Blocked shots6
10Giveaways5
4Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 2.3 xGWSH 3.2 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 10/100 · #1112 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.75 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.

TBL winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).