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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 7, 2009·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

Edmonton Oilers 3, Florida Panthers 2 (SO)

Away

Edmonton Oilers

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Florida Panthers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.

FLA winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
EDM071917052328
FLA0161919011235

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 3:29EDMShawn HorcoffPPAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Robert Nilsson · Tip-in, 0.34 xG1–0
  2. P2 6:07FLADominic MooreUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
  3. P3 1:25FLADominic MoorePPAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Radek Dvorak · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
  4. P3 4:33EDMLubomir VisnovskyAssists: Ladislav Smid · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. FLA Steve Reinprecht stopped
  2. 2. EDM Patrick O'Sullivan stopped
  3. 3. FLA Stephen Weiss stopped
  4. 4. EDM Robert Nilsson scored
  5. 5. FLA Rostislav Olesz scored
  6. 6. EDM Shawn Horcoff scored
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 8:22EDMGilbert Brule: Boarding2 min
  2. P1 11:50FLADominic Moore: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 2:03FLARostislav Olesz: Tripping2 min · PPG
  4. P2 7:21FLABryan McCabe: Interference2 min
  5. P2 14:41EDMSam Gagner: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 17:19EDMLadislav Smid: Holding2 min
  7. P3 0:27EDMPatrick O'Sullivan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  8. P3 11:32EDMGilbert Brule: Roughing2 min
  9. OT 2:23FLABryan McCabe: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackFLA attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMFLA
28Shots on goal35
2.2Expected goals2.3
47Shot attempts62
27Faceoffs won34
4Power plays5
10Penalty minutes8
28Hits22
16Blocked shots8
6Giveaways6
3Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 2.3 xGEDM 2.2 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLAEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 65/100 · #422 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.87 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 22% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.

FLA winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).