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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 7, 2009·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale

Minnesota Wild 0, Phoenix Coyotes 2

Away

Minnesota Wild

0

Final

Home

Phoenix Coyotes

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 68% of the time.

PHX winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN0601903028
PHX01021407231

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 10:30PHXScottie UpshallGWGAssists: Peter Mueller, Adrian Aucoin · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
  2. P2 11:14PHXTaylor PyattAssists: Shane Doan, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 6:45PHXShane Doan: Interference2 min
  2. P1 13:33MINShane Hnidy: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 5:40PHXMatthew Lombardi: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 12:04PHXScottie Upshall: Too many men on the ice2 min
  5. P2 12:20MINAntti Miettinen: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 16:30MINKim Johnsson: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 19:42PHXDaniel Winnik: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 0:00MINMartin Havlat: Slashing2 min
  9. P3 7:30PHXShane Doan: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  10. P3 10:55MINMikko Koivu: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  11. P3 15:22PHXRobert Lang: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 0:00PHXVernon Fiddler: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 0:00MINJames Sheppard: Fighting5 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHX
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackPHX attack →
  1. P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Koivu
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINPHX
28Shots on goal31
2.1Expected goals3.2
40Shot attempts51
30Faceoffs won34
6Power plays5
15Penalty minutes17
33Hits18
8Blocked shots6
6Giveaways4
1Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHX 3.2 xGMIN 2.1 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHXMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 1/100 · #1210 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.66 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50PHX 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 68% of the time.

PHX winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (PHX − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).