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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 7, 2009·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles

Calgary Flames 1, Los Angeles Kings 2

Away

Calgary Flames

1

Final

Home

Los Angeles Kings

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.

LAK winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY1608013127
LAK131904216

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:54LAKScott ParseAssists: Michal Handzus, Randy Jones · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
  2. P1 15:39CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Craig Conroy, Mark Giordano · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:34LAKJarret StollPPGWGAssists: Justin Williams, Dustin Brown · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 1:37LAKMichal Handzus: Boarding2 min
  2. P1 6:52CGYDion Phaneuf: Interference2 min
  3. P1 11:46LAKRaitis Ivanans: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 11:46CGYBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 19:43LAKJustin Williams: Holding2 min
  6. P2 3:35CGYCraig Conroy: Tripping2 min · PPG
  7. P2 17:34CGYAdam Pardy: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 4:44LAKMatt Greene: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 7:05CGYAdam Pardy: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 7:05LAKBrad Richardson: Slashing2 min
  11. P3 12:03LAKScott Parse: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0LAK
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackLAK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Kopitar
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYLAK
27Shots on goal16
2.4Expected goals1.7
54Shot attempts44
15Faceoffs won22
4Power plays3
13Penalty minutes15
25Hits32
12Blocked shots15
4Giveaways23
2Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

LAK 1.7 xGCGY 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

LAKCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 20/100 · #972 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.05 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50LAK 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.

LAK winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (LAK − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).