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Ice Lab

Tue, Dec 8, 2009·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

New York Islanders 2, Philadelphia Flyers 6

Away

New York Islanders

2

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.

PHI winsNYI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYI0521008223
PHI21531319637

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:47PHIMike RichardsPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Scott Hartnell · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P1 15:14PHIMike RichardsSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
  3. P2 4:21PHIJeff CarterPPGWGAssists: Daniel Brière, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
  4. P2 7:04PHIJeff CarterAssists: Daniel Brière, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–4
  5. P2 10:52NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Jeff Tambellini, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–4
  6. P2 14:55NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Matt Moulson, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–4
  7. P2 17:29PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Mike Richards, Chris Pronger · Snap, 0.07 xG2–5
  8. P3 2:35PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Scott Hartnell · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–6
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 8:20NYIMark Streit: Slashing2 min · PPG
  2. P1 14:09PHIDaniel Brière: Elbowing2 min
  3. P1 18:20NYIBruno Gervais: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 4:13NYIBrendan Witt: Holding2 min · PPG
  5. P2 9:04PHIClaude Giroux: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  6. P2 10:21PHIBraydon Coburn: Delaying game2 min
  7. P2 12:07PHIChris Pronger: Boarding2 min
  8. P2 14:25PHIDaniel Brière: Hooking2 min · PPG
  9. P2 16:05NYIFreddy Meyer: Holding2 min · PPG
  10. P2 18:12PHIIan Laperriere: Charging2 min
  11. P3 10:53PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 10:53NYIMatt Moulson: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 10:53PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 13:23NYIJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min
  15. P3 19:11PHIScott Hartnell: Delaying game2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← NYI attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Park won the faceoff against Carter
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYIPHI
23Shots on goal37
2.7Expected goals3.0
51Shot attempts58
28Faceoffs won31
8Power plays5
12Penalty minutes18
15Hits18
11Blocked shots11
11Giveaways11
9Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 3.0 xGNYI 2.7 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHINYI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 62/100 · #457 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.71 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
NYI 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.

PHI winsNYI wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).