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Ice Lab

Tue, Dec 8, 2009·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Montréal Canadiens 4, Ottawa Senators 1

Away

Montréal Canadiens

4

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.

OTT winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MTL1511329427
OTT013118015146

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 18:32MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Andrei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
  2. P2 1:46OTTMike FisherAssists: Milan Michalek, Daniel Alfredsson · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–1
  3. P2 11:47MTLMarc-Andre BergeronPPGWGAssists: Roman Hamrlik, Tomas Plekanec · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–1
  4. P3 17:48MTLAndrei KostitsynPPAssists: Marc-Andre Bergeron, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.45 xG3–1
  5. P3 18:55MTLScott GomezENUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.74 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
  1. P2 2:53MTLGeorges Laraque: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 6:34MTLTravis Moen: Slashing2 min
  3. P2 11:05OTTErik Karlsson: Interference2 min · PPG
  4. P2 13:47MTLHal Gill: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 18:27MTLRyan O'Byrne: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 5:49MTLMarc-Andre Bergeron: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 10:19MTLHal Gill: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 12:06OTTAlex Kovalev: Slashing2 min
  9. P3 14:31MTLMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 17:09OTTNick Foligno: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Plekanec
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLOTT
27Shots on goal46
3.5Expected goals3.6
37Shot attempts73
24Faceoffs won47
3Power plays7
14Penalty minutes6
21Hits18
14Blocked shots7
7Giveaways11
6Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 3.6 xGMTL 3.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 38/100 · #762 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.29 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.

OTT winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).