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Ice Lab

Tue, Dec 8, 2009·Sommet Center, Nashville

Vancouver Canucks 2, Nashville Predators 4

Away

Vancouver Canucks

2

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.

NSH winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN07112117236
NSH1816212426

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:19NSHMartin EratAssists: Jason Arnott, Steve Sullivan · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
  2. P2 3:03NSHMartin EratPPAssists: Francis Bouillon, Steve Sullivan · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–2
  3. P2 12:12VANRyan KeslerPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Tip-in, 0.30 xG1–2
  4. P3 11:27NSHPatric HornqvistPPGWGAssists: Jason Arnott, Martin Erat · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–3
  5. P3 16:25VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
  6. P3 18:54NSHMartin EratENAssists: David Legwand · Slap, 0.58 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 7:38VANMason Raymond: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 7:38NSHRyan Jones: Roughing2 min
  3. P2 1:52VANWillie Mitchell: Tripping2 min · PPG
  4. P2 7:17NSHJerred Smithson: Charging5 min · PPG
  5. P2 7:17NSHJerred Smithson: Game misconduct10 min
  6. P2 8:30VANChristian Ehrhoff: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 10:29NSHPatric Hornqvist: Holding the stick2 min
  8. P2 14:27VANJannik Hansen: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 7:59VANHenrik Sedin: Cross checking2 min
  10. P3 10:50VANMikael Samuelsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
  11. P3 11:50NSHDan Hamhuis: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 14:06VANAlexandre Burrows: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Legwand
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANNSH
36Shots on goal26
4.3Expected goals2.9
65Shot attempts62
31Faceoffs won34
4Power plays5
14Penalty minutes21
16Hits15
18Blocked shots15
7Giveaways10
11Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 2.9 xGVAN 4.3 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 43/100 · #695 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.03 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.

NSH winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).