Wed, Dec 9, 2009·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 0, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 011 | 011 | 013 | 035 |
| BUF | 111 | 213 | 04 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:06BUFSteve MontadorGWGAssists: Derek Roy, Nathan Gerbe · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P2 14:42BUFNathan GerbePPAssists: Derek Roy, Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 17:58BUFHenrik TallinderAssists: Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.40 xG0–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:29BUFTim Kennedy: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:51WSHTyler Sloan: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:32WSHTom Poti: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:31WSHMike Green: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:55BUFDerek Roy: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:55WSHAlex Ovechkin: Diving2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacArthur won the faceoff against Morrison
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).