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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 9, 2009·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

New York Islanders 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3

Away

New York Islanders

2

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 64% of the time.

TOR winsNYI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYI01008214232
TOR213010112335

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:03TORFrancois BeaucheminPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Lee Stempniak · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 14:40TORIan WhiteAssists: Matt Stajan, Niklas Hagman · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P3 1:32NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Jeff Tambellini · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
  4. P3 11:54NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Rob Schremp · Snap, 0.21 xG2–2
  5. P3 15:55TORJason BlakeGWGAssists: Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 5:36NYIMatt Moulson: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
  2. P1 12:39NYIMatt Moulson: Holding2 min
  3. P2 3:08TORGarnet Exelby: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 12:40NYIDwayne Roloson: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 19:57TORIan White: Holding2 min · PPG
  6. P3 0:19TORMike Komisarek: Interference2 min
  7. P3 11:48TORJamal Mayers: Boarding2 min · PPG
  8. P3 11:48TORJamal Mayers: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 11:48NYIBrendan Witt: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 12:36NYIMark Streit: Interference2 min
  11. P3 16:27NYIJack Hillen: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← NYI attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Park
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYITOR
32Shots on goal35
2.5Expected goals3.4
55Shot attempts68
29Faceoffs won35
4Power plays5
12Penalty minutes10
17Hits19
19Blocked shots15
8Giveaways11
5Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 3.4 xGNYI 2.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORNYI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 66/100 · #412 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.56 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
NYI 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +37 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 64% of the time.

TOR winsNYI wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).