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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 9, 2009·Prudential Center, Newark

Carolina Hurricanes 2, New Jersey Devils 4

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

2

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 78% of the time.

NJD winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR072907223
NJD21011318431

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:11NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Niclas Bergfors, Zach Parise · Deflected, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P1 17:53NJDAndy GreeneAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Jay Pandolfo · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
  3. P2 6:05NJDAndy GreenePPGWGAssists: Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.48 xG0–3
  4. P2 6:48CARBrandon SutterAssists: Joni Pitkanen · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
  5. P2 8:46CARTuomo RuutuPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Joni Pitkanen · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:59NJDRob NiedermayerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 13:06CARErik Cole: Boarding2 min
  2. P2 1:21NJDMike Mottau: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 5:39CARRay Whitney: High sticking2 min · PPG
  4. P2 8:23NJDRob Niedermayer: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 10:04CARErik Cole: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 13:40CARTuomo Ruutu: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 1:04NJDMike Mottau: Boarding2 min
  8. P3 14:54CARAaron Ward: Holding2 min
  9. P3 19:47NJDBryce Salvador: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Niedermayer won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARNJD
23Shots on goal31
1.4Expected goals2.9
41Shot attempts43
27Faceoffs won32
4Power plays5
10Penalty minutes8
1Hits7
7Blocked shots13
1Giveaways3
2Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 2.9 xGCAR 1.4 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 63/100 · #449 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.03 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 78% of the time.

NJD winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).