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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 9, 2009·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Florida Panthers 0, Columbus Blue Jackets 3

Away

Florida Panthers

0

Final

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.

CBJ winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
FLA0801608032
CBJ11201129332

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 18:19CBJJason ChimeraGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
  2. P3 14:10CBJDerick BrassardAssists: Raffi Torres, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
  3. P3 18:32CBJSamuel PahlssonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.58 xG0–3
Penalties (6)
  1. P2 11:07FLAShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min
  2. P3 10:07CBJKristian Huselius: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  3. P3 11:44CBJAndrew Murray: Hooking2 min
  4. P3 15:26CBJAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 19:02FLAVictor Oreskovich: High sticking2 min
  6. P3 19:02FLAMike Duco: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Vermette
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLACBJ
32Shots on goal32
2.0Expected goals3.3
48Shot attempts63
25Faceoffs won26
3Power plays2
14Penalty minutes6
37Hits26
20Blocked shots6
3Giveaways6
3Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 3.3 xGFLA 2.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 4/100 · #1177 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.57 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.

CBJ winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).