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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 9, 2009·United Center, Chicago

New York Rangers 1, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (OT)

Away

New York Rangers

1

Final

Overtime

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 94% of the time.

CHI winsNYR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
NYR150100102118
CHI0160141714241

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:10NYRChris HigginsAssists: Marian Gaborik, Michal Rozsival · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
  2. P3 14:05CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Marian Hossa, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–1
  3. OT 3:43CHIDustin ByfuglienGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 3:58NYRRyan Callahan: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 18:08NYRChris Drury: Holding2 min
  3. P1 18:08CHITroy Brouwer: Interference2 min
  4. P2 12:25CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 15:50NYRMarc Staal: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 5:43NYRArtem Anisimov: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 9:43NYRMichal Rozsival: High sticking2 min
  8. P3 13:03NYRDan Girardi: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← NYR attackCHI attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYRCHI
18Shots on goal41
1.0Expected goals4.2
32Shot attempts75
24Faceoffs won28
1Power plays5
12Penalty minutes4
23Hits22
17Blocked shots11
8Giveaways5
7Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 4.2 xGNYR 1.0 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHINYR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 47/100 · #640 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.51 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 17% (winner's lowest chance)
NYR 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +34 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 94% of the time.

CHI winsNYR wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − NYR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).