Skip to content
Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 9, 2009·Pepsi Center, Denver

Minnesota Wild 1, Colorado Avalanche 0

Away

Minnesota Wild

1

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 82% of the time.

COL winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN160704117
COL080607021

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:57MINAntti MiettinenGWGAssists: Andrew Brunette, Kim Johnsson · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 12:14MINJohn Scott: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 14:33MINJohn Scott: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  3. P1 16:53MINGreg Zanon: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 17:18COLKyle Quincey: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 8:46MINGreg Zanon: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 12:32COLRyan Wilson: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 6:16MINNathan Smith: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 11:22MINJohn Scott: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 16:37COLWojtek Wolski: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Smith
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINCOL
17Shots on goal21
1.2Expected goals2.6
28Shot attempts39
21Faceoffs won24
3Power plays6
12Penalty minutes6
18Hits12
12Blocked shots7
5Giveaways9
9Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 2.6 xGMIN 1.2 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 10/100 · #1098 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.79 · 1 goal in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 82% of the time.

COL winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).