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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 9, 2009·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Atlanta Thrashers 1, Calgary Flames 3

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

1

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.

CGY winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL0110618125
CGY0921419332

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 2:09CGYNigel DawesAssists: Aaron Johnson, Jarome Iginla · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P2 14:28CGYOlli JokinenGWGAssists: Jarome Iginla, Mark Giordano · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
  3. P3 12:27ATLColby ArmstrongAssists: Rich Peverley, Boris Valabik · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–2
  4. P3 19:20CGYRene BourqueENUnassisted · Snap, 0.71 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 12:59CGYDavid Moss: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 19:14CGYDavid Moss: Elbowing2 min
  3. P2 6:49CGYBrandon Prust: Boarding2 min
  4. P2 6:49ATLChris Thorburn: Closing hand on puck2 min
  5. P2 10:22ATLTodd White: Interference2 min
  6. P2 17:35ATLAnssi Salmela: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  7. P2 18:02CGYDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
  8. P3 2:01ATLColby Armstrong: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 2:01CGYCurtis Glencross: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 7:28ATLPavel Kubina: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 13:45ATLIlya Kovalchuk: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Peverley won the faceoff against Boyd
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLCGY
25Shots on goal32
2.4Expected goals3.2
47Shot attempts61
26Faceoffs won25
3Power plays4
15Penalty minutes13
9Hits11
14Blocked shots9
11Giveaways18
3Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 3.2 xGATL 2.4 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 17/100 · #1013 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.87 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.

CGY winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).