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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 9, 2009·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Los Angeles Kings 5, San Jose Sharks 4 (OT)

Away

Los Angeles Kings

5

Final

Overtime

Home

San Jose Sharks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 66% of the time.

SJS winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
LAK193801000527
SJS21311011100434

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:12LAKTeddy PurcellPPAssists: Randy Jones, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
  2. P1 11:22SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Kent Huskins, Ryane Clowe · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
  3. P1 19:23SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Ryane Clowe, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–2
  4. P2 1:32LAKJarret StollAssists: Jack Johnson, Dustin Brown · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
  5. P2 5:43LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
  6. P2 8:32LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Rob Scuderi · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
  7. P2 12:38SJSDan BoyleAssists: Dany Heatley, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
  8. P3 12:19SJSManny MalhotraAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Snap, 0.07 xG4–4
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 5:00SJSTorrey Mitchell: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P1 17:26LAKAlex Frolov: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 0:54SJSDouglas Murray: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 1:15LAKMichal Handzus: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  5. P2 1:47LAKRob Scuderi: Interference2 min
  6. P2 5:04SJSTorrey Mitchell: Tripping2 min · PPG
  7. P2 5:43SJSDan Boyle: Cross checking2 min
  8. P2 14:34LAKMichal Handzus: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  9. P2 17:32LAKJarret Stoll: Cross checking2 min
  10. P3 2:06SJSKent Huskins: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 4:58LAKMichal Handzus: Holding2 min
  12. P3 14:14LAKDustin Brown: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← LAK attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Thornton
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKSJS
27Shots on goal34
2.5Expected goals3.4
45Shot attempts63
30Faceoffs won28
5Power plays7
14Penalty minutes10
33Hits27
13Blocked shots11
7Giveaways15
7Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 3.4 xGLAK 2.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 96/100 · #28 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.67 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +33 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 66% of the time.

SJS winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).