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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 10, 2009·TD Garden, Boston

Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Boston Bruins 5

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.

BOS winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR09011214234
BOS19212213534

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:01BOSMark StuartAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Daniel Paille · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P2 0:35BOSDerek MorrisPPAssists: Zdeno Chara, Michael Ryder · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P2 11:10BOSDavid KrejciGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–3
  4. P3 0:18TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Jason Blake, Niklas Hagman · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–3
  5. P3 4:09TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Mike Komisarek, Tomas Kaberle · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
  6. P3 17:23BOSMark RecchiPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–4
  7. P3 19:48BOSMark RecchiENAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Marco Sturm · Wrist, 0.69 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 0:16TORJason Blake: High sticking double minor4 min
  2. P1 10:17BOSPatrice Bergeron: High sticking2 min
  3. P2 0:29TORIan White: Holding2 min · PPG
  4. P2 2:07TORJamal Mayers: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 2:07BOSMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 4:11TORJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 4:11BOSMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 15:44BOSBlake Wheeler: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  9. P3 15:59TORJason Blake: High sticking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Savard won the faceoff against Grabovski
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORBOS
34Shots on goal34
2.8Expected goals3.9
53Shot attempts54
27Faceoffs won22
2Power plays4
15Penalty minutes11
22Hits34
4Blocked shots8
3Giveaways1
0Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 3.9 xGTOR 2.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 68/100 · #371 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.92 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.

BOS winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).