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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 10, 2009·Centre Bell, Montreal

Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Montréal Canadiens 2

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

3

Final

Home

Montréal Canadiens

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 83% of the time.

MTL winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PIT111115115341
MTL072806221

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:38PITSergei GoncharAssists: Bill Guerin, Pascal Dupuis · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
  2. P2 10:48MTLMatt D'AgostiniAssists: Glen Metropolit · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
  3. P2 13:38MTLRoman HamrlikPPAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
  4. P2 17:45PITMatt CookeAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Jordan Staal · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
  5. P3 13:21PITPascal DupuisGWGAssists: Brooks Orpik, Jay McKee · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
  1. P2 3:30MTLMax Pacioretty: Holding2 min
  2. P2 7:52PITMike Rupp: Boarding2 min
  3. P2 8:39MTLJosh Gorges: Holding2 min
  4. P2 9:13PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 9:13MTLTomas Plekanec: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 12:49PITRuslan Fedotenko: Delaying game2 min · PPG
  7. P3 0:00PITSergei Gonchar: Interference2 min
  8. P3 1:40MTLRyan O'Byrne: Holding2 min
  9. P3 4:22MTLHal Gill: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 9:37MTLRyan O'Byrne: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackMTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Plekanec
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITMTL
41Shots on goal21
3.4Expected goals1.4
80Shot attempts46
22Faceoffs won37
5Power plays2
8Penalty minutes12
23Hits18
11Blocked shots26
16Giveaways27
4Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 1.4 xGPIT 3.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 59/100 · #512 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.79 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 24% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +35 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 83% of the time.

MTL winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).