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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 10, 2009·Sommet Center, Nashville

Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Nashville Predators 4 (SO)

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Nashville Predators

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.

NSH winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
CBJ0132918012331
NSH11621009043439

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:03NSHDave ScatchardAssists: Kevin Klein, Jordin Tootoo · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P2 2:58CBJKris RussellAssists: Rick Nash, Kristian Huselius · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:44NSHMartin EratAssists: Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–2
  4. P2 11:20CBJRaffi TorresPPAssists: Kris Russell, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
  5. P2 19:32NSHJason ArnottAssists: Shea Weber, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–3
  6. P3 4:18CBJRick NashAssists: Kristian Huselius · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. CBJ Kristian Huselius scored
  2. 2. NSH Marcel Goc scored
  3. 3. CBJ Rick Nash stopped
  4. 4. NSH Martin Erat stopped
  5. 5. CBJ Jakub Voracek stopped
  6. 6. NSH David Legwand stopped
  7. 7. CBJ Fedor Tyutin scored
  8. 8. NSH Jason Arnott scored
  9. 9. CBJ Antoine Vermette stopped
  10. 10. NSH Steve Sullivan scored
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 8:59CBJDerek Dorsett: Holding2 min
  2. P2 9:21NSHJoel Ward: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P3 5:56CBJMike Commodore: Interference2 min
  4. P3 12:16NSHJason Arnott: Slashing2 min
  5. P3 15:04CBJDerek Dorsett: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Umberger won the faceoff against Arnott
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJNSH
31Shots on goal39
2.7Expected goals3.1
54Shot attempts65
33Faceoffs won25
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes4
15Hits17
13Blocked shots12
10Giveaways15
15Takeaways15

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 3.1 xGCBJ 2.7 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 83/100 · #173 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.23 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 47% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.

NSH winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).